Ahmadinejad Spider-Hole Bound?

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has rebuffed what will be, in all probability, the most reasonable offer for face-to-face talks with the U.S. that he's likely to get.

The United States said Wednesday it would join in face-to-face talks with
Iran over its disputed nuclear program if Tehran first agreed to put challenged
atomic activities on hold, a shift in tactics meant to offer the Iranians a last
chance to avoid punishing sanctions.

Iran dismissed the offer as "a propaganda move."

As I read this report, I couldn't help imagining a once-proud and intransigent Ahmadinejad, disheveled and covered in mud, being pulled out of his carefully concealed spider hole a la Saddam Hussein. I believe that Ahmadinejad, as Saddam did in 2003, is underestimating the resolve of his Western opposition. The difference is that the Europeans are all on board for this one, which makes the possibility of a military intervention increasingly likely.

Full story.

Letter sheds light on 1950 refugee deaths

President Truman pretends he doesn't hate Gen. MacArthur just long enough to pin him with The Distinguished Service Medal - Oct. 14, 1950, Wake Island.

More than a half-century after hostilities ended in Korea, a document from the war's chaotic early days has come to light — a letter from the U.S. ambassador to Seoul, informing the State Department that American soldiers would shoot refugees approaching their lines.

“If refugees do appear from north of US lines they will receive warning shots, and if they then persist in advancing they will be shot," wrote Ambassador John J. Muccio, in his message to Assistant Secretary of State Dean Rusk.

Source

This is the first I've heard of this story, and I don't think the Korean War would have lasted beyond its second year if it had been scrutinized as the war in Iraq is today. What chance will open societies have in future wars with the minute-by-minute coverage of combat now available to anyone with a TV or a computer? The Vietnam and Iraq wars are two good examples of how the toughest opponent a democratic nation's army can face is the one back home.

Der Spiegel Interviews Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

Here's an interview that Iranian president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, recently gave to the German magazine, Der Spiegel. I don't think there's any doubt, given his sustained anti-Israeli rhetoric, that Ahmadinejad is doing his best to derail any chance of peace between the Israelis and Palestinians.

SPIEGEL: Are you still saying that the Holocaust is just "a myth?"

Ahmadinejad: I will only accept something as truth if I am actually convinced of it.

Full interview here.

Ahmadinejad's persistent pandering to anti-Israeli elements in the Middle East makes sense when considering the intractable, ethnic strife within his own country, which has been building for longer than most realize:

During the last week of May, thousands of Iranians demonstrated in the northwestern city of Tabriz, and the previous week there were protests at universities in five cities. The protests were triggered by the official government newspaper - the Islamic Republic News Agency's Iran - publishing a cartoon which depicts a boy repeating "cockroach" in Persian before a giant bug in front of him asks "What?" in Azeri.

The recent incidents of ethnic tensions are only the latest examples of what has been escalating for more than a year. In mid-March in the southeast, which is home to many of Iran's 1.4 million Baluchis, a Baluchi group called Jundallah took responsibility for an attack on a government motorcade in which 20 people were killed. Jundallah seized a number of hostages and claimed that it executed one of them, a member of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps. At least 12 people were killed in a similar attack in the second week of May. Nobody has taken credit for explosions May 8 in Kermanshah, which is home to Iran's 4.8 million Kurds, but the July 2005 shooting of a young Kurd by security forces led to demonstrations in several northwestern cities and the deaths of civilians and police officers. Since April of last year, there have been a number of violent incidents - including bombings that have targeted government facilities and which also have killed innocent bystanders - in the southwest, where many of Iran's 2 million Arabs live.

Source

Basic political doctrine dictates that domestic turmoil is best subdued by focusing attention away from it, and onto an external threat.

A Reader's Response

Repack Rider responds to my "Murtha Knows Best: Pronounces Marines Guilty Before Charges Filed in Haditha Scandal," post:

You seem to be confusing "verdict" with the observation that a crime has
taken place.

A "verdict" is an identification of a perpetrator, but that is the last
part of the question. When you find a bullet riddled corpse, or 24 of them
including children, you know a murder has taken place. That is not a "verdict,"
it is an observation of fact that is the initial stage of developing a verdict,
because you can't have a verdict until you know there was a crime. We also know
from the initial action reports that they were killed by United States Marines,
although the action reports told a different story about the events than the
evidence did.

If the story we are told conflicts with the physical and photographic
evidence, someone is lying, and someone is a murderer, but that is not a
"verdict." That is the starting point to the investigation leading to a verdict,
which would identify who is lying and who is a murderer.Thank you for this
opportunity to clear up what seems to be confusion on the right as to the
difference between observing that a crime has taken place, and the resulting
"verdict."

First, thanks for your cordial response, I’m always glad to receive polite feedback whether or not its conclusions are in agreement with my own.

In reading your response, I think it’s safe to say that you’ve taken issue with my characterization of Murtha’s comments as a verdict. Let me reiterate his comment here for clarity:

“Democrat John Murtha, a former Marines colonel who has retained close links to
the military despite his denunciation of the Iraq occupation, said Marines
"killed innocent civilians in cold blood."

Murtha is not simply pointing out that a crime may or may not have taken place; he’s instead unequivocally stating that the Marines in question have killed civilians in cold blood. The legal ramifications for committing such an act are defined locally as murder, and in an international context, as an atrocity against humanity, i.e., a war crime.

The point of this post was to indicate that some people who have come out against the war in Iraq, Murtha, in particular, have indeed declared these Marines guilty of a crime for which they have not yet been formally charged – I don’t honestly see any other way of interpreting Murtha’s statements. A declaration of innocence or guilt is a verdict; this is exactly what Murtha did, and I, for one, will never allow the presumption of innocence to be abandoned so willfully and irresponsibly, without expressing my strong disapproval.

As to your final point of clearing up “what seems to be confusion on the right,” I must respond by saying that the only confusion I see is that you've automatically assumed that I am from the right in the first place. Do you think that anyone who doesn't rant against the president and the war in Iraq at every opportunity is one of "those" people on the right? I surely hope not; such thinking is anathema to substantive debate.

The purpose of this site is to combat just that mode of thinking. My opinions about the war in Iraq and John Murtha’s selfish statements are based solely on my own analysis, and have nothing to do with an allegiance to any media-defined political philosophy. My goal here is to dismantle the artificial, groupthink-driven rhetoric, which regrettably passes for enlightened political thinking these days. So, with this in mind, let me thank you for giving me this opportunity to clear up your confusion.

A Marine Decries Murtha's Rush to Judgment

Regardless of how the investigation of the Haditha killings turns out, I think Rep. John Murtha has finally been exposed as the political opportunist that he is. The anti-war movement, if it expects to be taken seriously from here on in, would do well to distance itself from him as quickly as possible.

Here's a powerful letter to the editor of the Washington Post by Marine veteran Ilario Pantano, which underlines the irresponsibility of Rep. Murtha’s recent statements perfectly:

A year ago I was charged with two counts of premeditated murder and with other war crimes related to my service in Iraq. My wife and mother sat in a Camp Lejeune courtroom for five days while prosecutors painted me as a monster; then autopsy evidence blew their case out of the water, and the Marine Corps dropped all charges against me ["Marine Officer Cleared in Killing of Two Iraqis," news story, May 27, 2005].

So I know something about rushing to judgment, which is why I am so disturbed by the remarks of Rep. John P. Murtha (D-Pa.) regarding the Haditha incident ["Death Toll Rises in Haditha Attack, GOP
Leader Says," news story, May 20]. Mr. Murtha said, "Our troops overreacted because of the pressure on them, and they killed innocent civilians in cold blood."

In the United States, we have a civil and military court system that relies on an investigatory and judicial process to make determinations based on evidence. The system is not served by such grand pronouncements of horror and guilt without the accuser even having read the investigative report.

Mr. Murtha's position is particularly suspect when he is quoted by news services as saying that the strain of deployment "has caused them [the Marines] to crack in situations like this." Not only is he certain of the Marines' guilt but he claims to know the cause, which he conveniently attributes to a policy he opposes.

Members of the U.S. military serving in Iraq need more than Mr. Murtha's pseudo-sympathy. They need leaders to stand with them even in the hardest of times. Let the courts decide if these Marines are guilty. They haven't even been charged with a crime yet, so it is premature to presume their guilt -- unless that presumption is tied to a political motive.

ILARIO PANTANO
Jacksonville, N.C.
The writer served as a Marine enlisted man in the Persian Gulf War and most recently as a platoon commander in Iraq.

Uribe Sweeps Election in Colombia

No surprise here:

BOGOTA, Colombia (AP) - Law-and-order President Alvaro Uribe was re-elected in a landslide Sunday in Colombia's most peaceful elections in more than a decade, strengthening the U.S. ally's mandate to crack down on armed groups and drug traffickers.

Full story.

A Contrast in Governments: Canadians Decisive in Illegal Immigration Policy

The Canadian government seems immune from the political inertia inflicting their American counterparts:

Canada's Conservative government took on a tough stance on illegal immigrants, having deported planeloads of undocumented workers since April.

Immigration Minister Monte Solberg has said the government "has an obligation to the hundreds of thousands of people waiting to get into this country to make sure we don't reward those who don't play by the rules.”

Full story here.

Murtha Knows Best: Pronounces Marines Guilty Before Charges Filed in Haditha Scandal

Although details are just beginning to come out concerning the alleged Marine massacre of between 15 and 24 Iraqi civilians in Haditha on November 19 of last year, it seems that some of the most outspoken detractors of the war in Iraq are unwilling to wait for a verdict before cashing in:

Democrat John Murtha, a former Marines colonel who has retained close links to the military despite his denunciation of the Iraq occupation, said Marines "killed innocent civilians in cold blood."

Andrew Murray, chair of the Stop the War Coalition, said: "It's clear that what happened in Haditha is a war crime. It would be idle to think this is the first war crime that has been committed in the last three years. It must be assumed that more of this is going on."

"What happened at Haditha appears to be outright murder," said Marc Garlasco of Human Rights Watch. "It has the potential to blow up in the U.S. military's face."

Source

If it is established that the marines under scrutiny did indeed commit the atrocities attributed to them, then let them feel the full weight of justice. However -- it should be noted that there have been no charges filed against any marine currently under investigation.

I believe John Murtha's statements were ponderously premature and irresponsible, and I wonder how many U.S. servicemen will die as a direct result of his agenda-driven rush to judgment.

Bush Likens War on Terrorism to Cold War

President Bush, likening the war against Islamic radicals to the Cold War threat
of communism, told U.S. Military Academy graduates on Saturday that America's
safety depends on an aggressive push for democracy, especially in the Middle
East.

Here’s a quote from president Bush’s speech to the graduating class at West Point.

As President Truman put it towards the end of his presidency, 'When history says that my term of office saw the beginning of the Cold War, it will also say that in those eight years we set the course that can win it.' His leadership paved the way for subsequent presidents from both political parties - men like Eisenhower, Kennedy, and Reagan - to confront and eventually defeat the Soviet threat.

I entirely agree with the president's assessment, and wonder what isolationists would do differently to guarantee stability in the Middle Eastern oil market. I will be the first to say that Bush’s efforts in Iraq have been less than satisfactory, but I don’t think that his incompetence in prosecuting the war makes his overarching policy of stability via the democratization of the Middle East, any less valid.

Remember that Truman’s first substantial confrontation with communism in Korea was a nightmare. Truman had actually withdrawn all American troops from South Korea by 1949, which, as it turned out, was an open invitation for the communist North Koreans to invade. If Truman had been more resolute in his anti-communist convictions and maintained a strong military presence in South Korea, the war, in which 33,686 Americans perished, would never have occurred.

Will Illegals Have More Rights Than U.S. Citizens?

Thomas Sowell discusses the advantages illegal immigrants will have over American citizens if the U.S. Senate's immigration bill were to become law:

Since most of the illegals are Mexican, that makes them a minority. Under affirmative action, combined with amnesty, they would have preferences in jobs and other benefits.
Those who set up their own businesses would be entitled to preferences in getting government contracts. Their children would be able to get into college ahead of the children of American citizens with better academic qualifications.

Read the rest of Sowell's editorial here.

Go here for the full text of the senate's immigration bill.

Azerbaijan may supply gas to Europe, says president

Aliyev said Azerbaijan was also ready to play a role in the transit of oil and gas, citing two major pipelines nearing completion, which would take gas from his Caspian nation to Turkey and Georgia.

There’s no doubt that Azerbaijan could benefit immensely from a European contract as 49% of its population is currently living below the poverty line. The question that remains is whether the corruption endemic to Azerbaijan can be stifled sufficiently to allow it to become more than just another one-dimensional petrostate.

Full story here.

Feel-Good Legislation, But for Whom?

The Senate passed what could become the most sweeping immigration overhaul in two decades. The bill, which passed 62-36, includes stronger enforcement, a new guest worker program and a plan to allow many of the 12 million illegal immigrants now living in the United States to earn their way to citizenship.

Vicente Fox’s reaction:

Fox said the Senate vote was "the moment millions of families have been hoping for ... that millions of people have been working for."

Source.

Flashback:

The Mexican government drew fire from American advocates of tighter borders on Wednesday for publishing a pamphlet that instructs migrants how to safely enter the United States illegally and live there without being detected.

Source.

The Senate's passing of the immigration bill was, at best, a Pyrrhic victory. The watered-down bill will be rejected out of hand once it comes before the house. Vicente Fox’s strong support for the bill only makes this more likely.

Illegal immigration to the U.S., from Vicente Fox’s perspective, is nothing more than a political expedient; a safety valve, which reduces pressure on his government to make any serious economic reforms. This whole fiasco attests perfectly to the lengths that both American and Mexican politicians will go to retain their power.

DPRK Braces for War

Apparently, an American-led invasion of North Korea is imminent. Here's a recent offering by the DPRK's state run media:

Now that the U.S. move for a war of aggression against the DPRK has become undisguised, its army and people will further strengthen its self-reliant defence power in order to safeguard the security and sovereignty of the nation. The U.S., mindful of this, should immediately dissolve the illegal "UN Command" and take a measure for the withdrawal of its troops from south Korea.

Full text here. (Select the "U.S. Moves to Involve "Multi-national" Troops in Second Korean War under Fire" link from the main menu).

Avian Flu Update

There have been some significant developments of late, regarding the potent H5N1 flu strain. Healthcare officials have warned that human-to-human transmission of the so-called bird flu virus would have disastrous global health-care ramifications. Let's hope that no such transmission has occurred in Indonesia.

Jakarta - Tests have confirmed that two more people have died of bird flu in Indonesia, says a senior health ministry official.

One of the victims belonged to a Sumatran family at the centre of fears of human-to-human transmission after six members of the family died this month of bird flu.

Nyoman Kandun, director-general of communicable disease control at the health ministry, said: "One man from the same Sumatra cluster died this morning. He is the father of the child who died on May 13.

Read the full story here.


This is being reported out of Romania:

Bucharest - About 13 000 people were quarantined in the Romanian capital on Monday as troops and police sealed off streets in response to the city's second bird-flu outbreak, said officials.

The mayor of the southern fourth district, Adrian Inimaroiu, said residents would be cut off and all businesses in the area would be closed during the quarantine period of up to three weeks.

Story here.

In Range?

Iran conducted a test launch Tuesday night of the Shihab-3 intermediate-range ballistic missile, which is capable of reaching Israel and US targets in the region, Israel Radio reported. The test came hours before Prime minister Ehud Olmert met with US President George W Bush in Washington to discuss the Iranian threat.

Read the full story here.

Is this Israeli propaganda or Iranian provocation? My guess is that it’s probably a little of both. This renewed brinkmanship will more than likely push oil prices back over the $70 mark. Happy motoring.

The Iranian Badge Story Persists

It seems that this story will not die easily. Amir Taheri, author of the original article, which said that non-Muslims in Iran may soon be wearing identification badges, responds here to accusations that his claim is groundless. Here's an excerpt of his latest statement:

Regarding the dress code story it seems that my column was used as the basis for a number of reports that somehow jumped the gun. As far as my article is concerned I stand by it.The law has been passed by the Islamic Majlis and will now be submitted to the Council of Guardians. A committee has been appointed to work out the modalities of implementation. Many ideas are being discussed with regard to implementation, including special markers, known as zonnars, for followers of Judaism, Christianity and Zoroastrianism, the only faiths other than Islam that are recognized as such. The zonnar was in use throughout the Muslim world until the early 20th century and marked out the dhimmis, or protected religious minorities. (In Iran it was formally abolished in 1908).

It's the Oil, Stupid

Here’s the latest assessment of Iraq’s oil production capabilities according to James Jeffrey, senior advisor to the Secretary of State:

Jeffrey said oil production has been restored to over 2 million barrels per day. Iraqi oil exports are reaching 1.6 million barrels per day, and Jeffrey said he would like to see Iraq exporting 2 million barrels per day.

What were Iraqi production capabilities before the first Gulf war? Look here:

Shortly after its failed 1990 invasion of Kuwait and imposition of resulting trade embargos, Iraq's oil production fell from 3.5 million barrels per day to around 300,000 barrels per day. By February 2002, Iraqi oil production had recovered to about 2.5 million barrels per day. Iraqi officials had hoped to increase the country's oil production capacity to 3.5 million barrels per day by the end of 2000, but did not accomplish this given technical problems with Iraqi oil fields, pipelines, and other oil infrastructure.

Here’s a reference to a declassified British document showing Nixon’s resolve to break the Arab oil embargo in 1973:

The United States government seriously contemplated using military force to seize oil fields in the Middle East during the Arab oil embargo 30 years ago, according to a declassified British government document made public on Thursday.
The top-secret document says that President Richard M.Nixon was prepared to act more aggressively than previously thought to secure America's oil supply if the embargo, imposed by Arab nations in retaliation forAmerica's support for Israel in the 1973 Middle East war, did not end. In fact,the embargo was lifted in March 1974. The declassified British memorandum said the United States considered launching airborne troops to seize oil fields in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Abu Dhabi, but only as a "last resort."

The point to be made here is that oil is the lifeblood of the West, and that the current war in Iraq, whether you support it or not, was inevitable. Incompetence in the war’s prosecution does not invalidate the desired goal of stabilizing the Middle Eastern oil market.

Baghdad ER: It's About Time

As I watched the HBO documentary, Baghdad ER, last night, I was struck with the sense that this film would have more of an impact on how the war in Iraq is perceived at home, than any speeches, movies, or protests that preceded it. As the film clip showing Brig Gen. Nguyen Ngoc executing a Vietcong officer assaulted the sensibilities of Americans back home in 1968, Baghdad ER may have much the same effect in 2006.

It is vitally important for the American public to understand the tremendous sacrifices made by their countrymen in Iraq on a daily basis. In that regard, Baghdad ER is an important, albeit modest, step in the right direction. If your knowledge of the war in Iraq is limited to mind-numbing media abstractions, i.e., vague, politically motivated bombast, which does nothing to communicate the true carnage in Iraq, how can you possibly know whether the war is worth fighting?

Baghdad ER, as it turns out, did nothing to dissuade me from my previously held views on the war. What it did do, however, is significantly increase the appreciation I have for the profound sacrifices that have been, and continue to be, undertaken on my behalf. To all the U.S.,British, and Coalition forces serving in Iraq: Thank you.

The Wealth of Nations

The Seattle Post Intelligencer ran an article yesterday reporting on China's completion of its Three Gorges dam across the Yangtze River. Apparently, this is the largest hydroelectric project the world has ever seen. This was, however, not what caught my attention. At the very end of the article there was a reference to China's growing wealth disparity, which piqued my interest:

Plans for a more elaborate celebration were canceled, Xinhua reported, without giving a reason. Elaborate state celebrations have been rolled back amid a growing disparity between the urban rich and rural poor.

Having, in recent years, heard a number of references to this troubling economic trend in China, I decided that it was about time I got to the bottom of things.

It turns out that the universally accepted statistic for measuring wealth disparities within a particular country is known as that country’s Gini coefficient. As I understand it, the Gini coefficient is a value between 0 and 1, with 0 meaning everyone in a particular country shares that nation’s wealth equally and 1 meaning, as you might expect, that a single person controls all wealth of that nation. Pretty straightforward stuff, right?

So, how well did China do? Well, the answer to that was surprising to say the least: China’s Gini index (the Gini coefficient multiplied by 100), it turns out, is 44, better than America’s, which is rated at 45! This, I believe, is a perfect illustration of media bias. Without looking more closely at the actual data associated with the above contention, there’s no doubt that many would have come away from that article with a much more negative opinion of China’s economic situation than appears to be warranted.

Here’s a link to a site that ranks countries by their Gini index. Remember, the lower the number, the more equal the distribution of wealth.

A Few Questions, Mr. President...

The British call it Questions to the Prime Minister; New Zealanders and Australians refer to it as Question Time; and the Canadians, as Question Period. These terms all describe the time set aside for the representative bodies of each of these nations to directly address any concerns they may have with decisions made by the chief executives of their governments. These question periods are an invaluable tool in establishing a transparent, democratic rapport between leaders and the people they are sworn to serve and protect. Conspicuously absent from this list is the United States of America. The president of the U.S. takes part in no such question period, and I believe it’s time for this to change.

There has been, since President Bush first took office in 2000, a progressively widening disconnect between the executive and his constituency. Approval ratings aside, the American president, regardless of his ebbing popularity at any given time, has chosen to greatly limit his public exposure. President Bush is more than happy to limit the debate by selectively feeding the media with carefully scripted sound-bites, specially formulated to fend off questions instead of answering them.

That participation in these tightly controlled presentations is generally limited to the media is equally vexing to me. The media does not represent me, so why are they given the exclusive privilege of questioning MY employee: the president?

In light of the myriad questions swirling around the president’s handling of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, illegal immigration, NSA wiretaps and official policies toward torture in the so-called war on terrorism, it is time for the president to make an accounting of himself.

I would like to have the president appear once a week before the U.S. Senate and once a month before the U.S. House of Representatives (The last week of each month would include the entire U.S. Congress). In these hour-long, publicly televised sessions, the president would take questions inspired by letters written to the congress by private American citizens. These sessions would be presided over by a member of the U.S. Supreme court; justices would serve in rotation and their power over the proceedings would be absolute.

Just imagine, all three branches of the U.S. government represented in the same chamber, locked in vigorous debate over the issues that WE, the people, think are important. I ask you, would this not electrify the American public? Never mind American Idol, such a spectacle would command ratings on par with the super bowl.

I firmly believe that the establishment of such a tradition would go a long way both in demystifying the American political process, and in giving the American people a much-needed assurance that their participation in government is not in vain. We get the government we deserve – It’s time to show that we deserve better.

Update to Iranian Badge Story

Iran's Jewish MP denies reports pretending to force non-Muslims to wear colored badges

"Iran's Jewish MP Maurice Motammed, strongly denied reports in a Canadian
newspaper that Iran may force non-Muslims to wear colored badges in public so
they can be identified. He told AFP that quote: "The report is a lie, and the
people who invented it wanted to make political gain by doing so."

Motammed said he had been present in parliament when a bill to promote
"an Iranian and Islamic style of dress for women" was voted adding quote: "In
the law, there is no mention of religious minorities; this is an insult to the
Iranian people and to religious minorities in Iran."

Source

The Great Ethanol Debate

Watching a congressional hearing on gasoline and ethanol prices yesterday on C-span prompted me to write this article. It seems that ethanol, according to yesterday's testimony, is not yet the answer (unless you happen to grow corn for a living).Proponents say ethanol has a positive energy yield (yields more Btu’s than are needed to produce it) while its detractors assert the opposite: more energy is needed to produce ethanol than the finished product will yield.

This debate is beginning to look more and more like the global warming debate: pick a side and enjoy the ride. I have sourced a few interesting tidbits, some more reputable than others, which, on the balance, seem to imply that ethanol is nothing more than corn grower's welfare. At approximately $2.90 a gallon (the same as the U.S. gasoline average price) you can expect 2/3 the energy output of gasoline - and whether you use any of the ethanol derivatives (E10,E85) your tax dollars will still go to subsidize ethanol at a .54/gallon rate. Feel free to add any additional viewpoints/data; balance, as always, is the name of the game here.

The cost of producing and transporting ethanol will continue to limit its use as
a renewable fuel. Ethanol relies heavily on Federal and State subsidies to
remain economically viable as a gasoline-blending component. The current Federal
subsidy, at 54 cents per gallon, makes it possible for ethanol to compete as a
gasoline additive. Corn prices are the dominant cost factor in ethanol
production, and ethanol supply is extremely sensitive to corn prices, as was
seen in 1996. Ethanol production dropped sharply in mid-1996 (Figure 3), when
late planting due to wet conditions resulted in short corn supplies and higher
prices.

Source

From a national supply perspective, it is useful to note the energy impacts of
adding ethanol to gasoline as well as the volume effects. Conventional gasoline
without ethanol contains about 115,000 Btu in a gallon8. Ethanol contains 76,000
Btu in a gallon, or about two-thirds the energy of gasoline. Thus, when 90
gallons of conventional gasoline are extended to 100 gallons by adding 10
gallons of ethanol, the volume of the base 90 gallons has increased by about
11.1 percent, but the energy has only increased about 7.5 percent. Table 2
summarizes both the energy and the volume impacts of adding ethanol to gasoline
with and without an RVP waiver.

Source

Most expensive is Washington's 54 cent-per-gallon tax break for gasohol. This
special-interest loophole accounts for the bulk of the more than $10 billion in
subsidies to ADM since 1980. All told, analyst James Bovard estimates that every
dollar in profits earned by ADM costs taxpayers $30.

Source

Here's a response by The American Coalition for Ethanol:

What does “net energy balance” mean?

What is ethanol’s energy balance? Net energy balance is a term used to
describe how much energy is needed to produce a product versus how much energy
that product provides. Two professors that are long-time critics of ethanol
claim that ethanol has a negative energy balance, meaning more energy is
required to produce ethanol than ethanol offers as a motor fuel.This is not
true. Scientific study after study has proven ethanol’s energy balance to
clearly be positive. The latest USDA figures show that ethanol made from the dry
mill process provides at least 77% more energy as a fuel than the process it
takes to make it.The bottom line is that it takes about 35,000 BTUs (British
Thermal Units) of energy to create a gallon of ethanol, and that gallon of
ethanol contains at least 77,000 BTUs of energy.

Source


Ethanol Futures are currently trading at $2.90/galSee price history here: Source

Note: I have added a U.S. gas price ticker to the side column; just type in your state to see the updated average prices.

NYPD warns officers about cell phone guns

"NEW YORK - The New York Police Department has warned officers to watch out for a type of rare custom-made pistol, disguised as a cell phone.

Federal authorities have been issuing warnings about the specially made .22 caliber handgun since at least 2000, when several were recovered by law enforcement authorities in Europe.

The weapons, which use a spring-wound percussion system to fire up to four .22 caliber bullets, have continued to surface occasionally overseas." More here.

Iran may force badges on Jews, Christians

"TEHRAN, May 19 (UPI) -- Iran's parliament passed a new law this week that would
force the country's Jews, Christians and other religious minorities to wear
color-coded ID badges.

Iranian expatriates confirmed reports the Iranian parliament, or majlis, has approved a law that would require non-Muslims to adhere to a dress code which mandates they wear "standard Islamic garments,"according to Canada's National Post.

The roughly 25,000 Jews living in the Islamic Republic would have to attach a yellow strip of cloth to their clothing, Christians would wear red badges and Zoroastrians would wear blue ones." More here.

Microsoft Launches "Vista Get Ready" Web Site

For some time Microsoft has been dancing around the topic of the actual system specs you'll need to run Windows Vista in all of its graphical glory. Today that changed with the company's launch of a new website dedicated to explaining what you need to have a "Vista-capable PC" and a "Vista Premium-Ready PC.

More here.

Venezuela May Buy Russian Fighter Jets, Chavez Says

Hugo Chavez (left) poses with Cuba's president, Fidel Castro.

Hugo Chavez, president of Venezuela, responded to the announced suspension of
arms sales from the U.S. by suggesting that Russia and China could become
alternatives as suppliers to the Venezuelan military.

See the story here.

Chavez, a self-proclaimed savior of the impoverished in both his country and the world over, has gotten a great deal of mileage out of his anti-American rhetoric, and more recently, claims of an impending American invasion of his country. The thought of a Venezuelan invasion by the U.S. is of course laughable: American politicians are divided as to whether 6,000 National Guard troops can even be spared for duty along the Mexican border, let alone an invasion of Venezuela.

I believe Chavez is simply continuing his effective campaign of using America as a convenient excuse for the intractable problems within his own country; problems which he is having little success in addressing.

Chavez, who has all but nationalized his country’s oil industry, seems to spend more petrodollars on strengthening his own prestige than on building an economy that doesn’t rely heavily on oil revenues. 47% of Venezuela’s population is currently living below the poverty line – perhaps Chavez should withdraw from the world stage until he’s gotten his own house in order.

"The West Wing"

There are precious few times, unfortunately, when a television program will rise above its purpose, transcend its medium, and make us forget, for an hour a week, just how mediocre and vapid television has become. In an industry that increasingly caters to the lowest, most base and superficial urges within us all, “The West Wing” stands alone.

From its inception seven years ago, “The West Wing” has set a standard in the commercial television industry that other programs never even attempted to match. The consistently smart dialogue, well-crafted and provocative storylines, and more than adequate performances turned in by its cast, made for a weekly celebration of what television could be. Last night, “The West Wing” made its final curtain call: the trashy and tawdry will now have to suffice. Click.

Ahmadi-Najad Reverts to Form?

This is just a quick update to the Ahmadi-Najad letter story. It seems that the letter has generated a great deal of sympathy for the irrepressible president of Iran; I knew it would, that's why he got a B+. If you haven't heard about Ahmadi-Najad's latest exploits; read about them here. Here's the first line of the piece:

“IRAN'S President unleashed more nuclear rhetoric yesterday to a rapturous audience in Indonesia, saying a "tyrannical" Israel should be destroyed.”

It appears that the mixed metaphors of Ahmadi-Najad's letter have been given a companion in the form of mixed messages. I will, unless I find this report to be in error, take this as further evidence that Ahmadi-Najad's letter was exactly as I had reported, namely, a diplomatic counterattack that was as sincere as it was brief. (It was 18 pages long for those of you that didn't sense my sarcasm).

I have been told by a few individuals that Ahmadi-Najad's speeches are purposely mistranslated by the western media in order to make them appear to be more outrageous than is actually the case. If this is true, I'd very much like to hear about it. Those fluent in Farsi are encouraged to comment.
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A Letter from Mahmood Ahmadi-Najad

The first thing that struck me about this letter was that it’s badly in need of some serious copy-editing. I would think a letter of such implied importance, written expressly for the leader of an English-speaking nation, would be subjected to a lot more revision than this lackluster effort appears to have been.


Second, I don't think, aside from the fact that the letter was sent at all, that any new ground was broken regarding a significant move toward conciliation with the West. Ahmadi-Najad can't possibly expect to reinvigorate relations with the West by telling them that democracy has failed and that Israel's existence is an inexplicable phenomenon.


Finally, I think it's safe to say that this letter wasn't written to George Bush at all. If it was, you wouldn't be reading it right now. Ahmadi-Najad realizes how low George Bush's ratings are and understands that he needs to tone down his message in order to capitalize on Bush's current unpopularity.

All in all, I give this effort of statecraft a solid B+; it was well-timed, addresses its intended audiences perfectly, and could very well, at least temporarily, apply the brakes to the hostile rhetoric of late. Why only a B+ and not an A? Spelling and grammar count. Install MS Word Mr. Ahmadi-Najad; I personally never send out a historical, potentially world-changing document without spell checking it first.


Read the full letter here

Why Rent Control is Destructive

Most people are under the impression that price controls serve to make things more affordable for the less wealthy element of a particular society. A closer inspection, however, reveals that price controls will, without failure, create shortages in those products or services that they are applied to.

An example of this could be rent controlled apartments in an urban region. Let's say that apartments are "spiraling" out of control as far as rents being charged. The lower economic strata will protest that housing has become largely unaffordable and something must be done. Well-intentioned government officials may well react by placing a ceiling on rents; let's say at a rate of $500/month. The poor will be overjoyed and quickly occupy any available housing. This is where this city's problems will begin.

As time goes on, landlords will no longer invest money in the upkeep of their properties; the reason is that while there is a control on how much money they can charge for their apartments, there is no such control on the materials and utilities needed to keep these units in good repair. Eventually, the landlord will find that he's losing more money to keep the apartments in shape than he is getting as a return on his investment in the form of monthly rent payments. He will do one of two things at this point: either allow the apartment to fall into gross disrepair, or abandon it altogether to avoid losing even more from his investment. As this goes on throughout the city we see that it has the net affect of degrading existing housing and also inhibiting new housing from being built; being a landlord is no longer profitable under the price control so why bother being one?

The above example was taken from a real world situation which developed in NYC - the situation became so bad that by the mid 1980's there were 4 abandoned apartments for every homeless person within NYC limits. I'd suggest the lesson to be learned here is that economics aren't emotional and so decisions concerning economics shouldn't be either.

Why I Support (with reservations) the War in Iraq

I have heard many arguments, pro and con, regarding the war in Iraq. These arguments, unfortunately, tend to be long on emotion and hyperbole but astoundingly short on reason. The opposition relies on anti-Bush rhetoric while never actually addressing the geopolitical realities that made this war, in my opinion, a question not of if, but of when. On the other side of the debate, I often hear supporters of the war declare with absolute sincerity that “We’re over there helping the people of Iraq; we’ve saved these broken people from Saddam Hussein's dictatorial meglomania” or something along those lines. I'm not convinced.

To respond to the anti-war camp, I would suggest that this war in Iraq was going to happen sooner or later, no matter which party happened to be in power. Saying that George Bush lied to get us into this war or that the war is being fought ineptly, misses the point, and does nothing to change this fact. Casualties suffered in its prosecution also change nothing.

As to the pro-war factions who insist that this war is being waged for national security or human rights considerations in Iraq, my response to them would be, where’s the evidence? If we were so worried about ensuring human rights around the world, we’d have 138,000 troops in Sudan, not Iraq. If our national security was really at issue, why are our borders wide open to illegal immigration?

No, most of the talk I hear and words I've read have nothing at all in common with my understanding of this war. The reason we’re in Iraq , at least to me, is rather basic: allowing a renegade dictator to threaten the world oil market is an incomprehensible policy for a rational, self-interested nation to prescribe to. Let me explain.

Currently, the world consumes 85 million barrels of oil per day. Of that total, the U.S. alone consumes 25% or 21.2 million barrels per day. Global oil demand leaves only 2 million reserve barrels a day; this is a dangerous margin. If even one of the major oil-producing nations were to withdraw their oil from the world market, for whatever reason, prices would immediately jump to levels not seen in human history, even after being adjusted for inflation. This thin margin of error necessitates, until demand can be lowered somehow, that the oil supply remain stable. This need for stability in the world oil market has clearly manifested itself in American foreign policy throughout the world; the best example being the war in Iraq, but it's also quite apparent in American dealings with Iran, Saudi Arabia and Mexico. Oil, for better or worse, is America’s lifeblood, whose importance we ignore at our own peril.

I support the war in Iraq for the reasons I’ve stated above; this is not to say I take any pleasure in death and suffering in Iraq or in any way approve of how the war has been conducted to date. I'm simply saying that if you want to protest this war, do so by cutting back on your personal energy consumption and by demanding more investment in viable alternate fuel sources (not ethanol for reasons I’ll explain in a future post.) Insisting that George Bush be impeached or that American troops should be withdrawn immediately will do absolutely nothing to address the fundamental issue at hand: The day when oil suppliers can no longer satisfy global demand is not long off, and when that day does arrive, the war in Iraq will pale in comparison.

The Scream

"The Scream," an impressionistic rendering,was painted by Norwegian artist Edvard Munch in 1893. The painting depicts a man becoming overwhelmed by a rapidly dehumanizing modern world. 1893 was the height of the Second Industrial Revolution; an age of trains, automobiles and mechanized factories that advanced far more rapidly than many could endure. (Perhaps analogous to the computer age of today).

Food for Thought

"The great tragedy of the drive to centralization, as of the drive to extend the scope of government in general, is that it is mostly led by men of good will who will be the first to rue its consequences."

Milton Friedman, Capitalism and Freedom, 1962

By men of good will, Friedman is referring to the modern day liberal, not to be confused with classic liberals such as Adam Smith and John Locke who both saw government as something to be let out of its cage only under the strictest of supervision. Friedman is correctly implicating the current tendencies of Western governments to treat its citizens as a master would treat a favored pet. Rewards, condescension and firm but gentle admonitions characterize the demeanor with which a supposed free man is approached by his government. A democratic government exists primarily to assure that a free man will remain just that: free to trade and enter into contracts, free from perils both domestic and external and free to convert his labor into whichever form of consumption he chooses within the laws of good conscience and reason.


When a government institutes a direct tax on those it serves, there are certain questions that need to be addressed. Is an inefficient, distended government capable of exercising the same restraint and care that a private citizen would over the fruit of his own labors? Is this same government as interested in an individual's freedom as it is in growing its own power? In the case of the American government, I would have to unfortunately answer no on both issues: the current trends in governance come as a result of a constant and increasingly irresponsible drift away from the solemn promises promulgated and recorded by the founders of this great experiment in freedom. As the government grows the individual must shrink.

Al-Qaeda leaders are losing control, U.S. says

"WASHINGTON (AP) — Leaders of al-Qaeda lost some control of the terror network last year due to the arrests and deaths of top operational planners, but the group remains the most prominent terror threat facing the United States and its allies, the State Department said Friday."

See the full story here.


I believe this type of report is dangerous in two important ways. For one, it treats Al-Qaeda as if it was a main objective instead of just one of hundreds of so-called terror organizations and secondly, such a report absolutely misses the point as to the nature of terrorism and its goals.

Killing or incarcerating terrorist leadership does nothing to reduce the motivations that drove the organizations to be formed in the first place. The war on terrorism cannot be fought solely against existing organizations but must, in a larger sense, address the culture from which such organizations arise.

The way to combat terrorism is by taking the desperation and powerlessness its supporters feel; replacing it with an efficacious political system that allows them to seek meaningful redress without having to resort to inhumane violence. Removing dictators from power and replacing them with responsive democratic bodies accomplishes this goal: the majority of terrorist activities are provoked by its adherents feeling that no other viable options exist. When considering such dictatorial regimes such as Iran, pre-war Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and to a lesser extent, Egypt, we see that the citizens of these nations have very little opportunity to effectively air their complaints. Until this situation changes, the war on terrorism is merely a sophisticated public relations campaign that, like the war on drugs, will never actually accomplish anything, but instead tout encouraging statistics while root causes go relatively un-addressed.

It is important to understand that only a tiny fraction of Muslims actively take part in terrorist activities. The main thrust of any anti-terrorist efforts must instead concentrate on eroding the popular support these radical organizations rely on to survive. Terrorism only thrives when it can rely on a constant network of sympathizers to finance its operations and protect its operatives.

This is why I believe that, for better or worse, the West must redouble its efforts in assuring the democratization of the Middle East; gone are the days when Western governments could play one dictator against the other for their own personal gains; as WMD become more readily available to the highest bidder, the neo-colonialist policies of old are no longer relevant. It’s time to practice what we preach; democratization in the Middle East must be realized or this war will be just another Madison Avenue brainchild with no end in sight.

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